12-Month Home Price Forecast
This morning, Zillow’s economists published an updated home price forecast for their Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) for the next 12-months, projecting that national home prices will rise 1.9% between September 2025 and September 2026.
This is driven by positive readings for 708 out of the 895 MSAs tracked by Zillow. Although seasonality plays a part, this represents a 58% increase in their projected growth rate over the next year from 1.2% in August, as well as a major acceleration from the 0.1% growth from September 2024.
This continues the trend of continued home value appreciation accelerations projected by Zillow’s economists, following reports of 0.4% and 1.2%, a major change from its bearish forecast of a 1.7% decline nationally in April.
It does come at a surprising time, with Zillow’s data from September also showing a 15.8% increase in nation-wide for-sale inventory from the prior year. Inventory turns, measured as median days on market, also ticked up four days (8%) from August.
One driver could be slightly-lower mortgage rates from the prior month, although today’s 6.27% rate is only down ~ 15 basis-points from last year and market consensus forecasts continue to show rates moving higher.
This improvement seems to be driven by improvements in some of the major-U.S. metros that have seen large declines over the past year, namely those in FL and TX. Metros like Atlanta, Dallas, Miami, Phoenix, and Tampa are projected to see positive returns after posting 3%+ declines.
Although still projected to decline against easy comps, metros like Austin, Cape Coral, Denver, and San Antonio are all forecasted to see meaningful accelerations as supply and demand dynamics continue to balance out and excess inventory is absorbed.
Click here for an interactive map of each metro’s 12-month forecast
Greatest ZVHI Appreciation Forecasted
Among the 500 largest U.S. metros, Zillow is forecasting the greatest ZHVI appreciation over the next twelve months, ending September 2026, to come from:
As for some of the major U.S. metros that Zillow’s model is bullish on, investors can look to Charlotte (2.8%), Cleveland (2.8%), Kansas City (2.5%), Miami and Philadelphia (2.3%).
Greatest ZHVI Declines Forecasted
Among the 500 largest U.S. metros, Zillow is forecasting the greatest ZHVI declines over the next twelve months, ending September 2026, to come from:
Based on this report, 2026 is shaping up to be a year for struggling markets to (potentially) catch their breath if they are able to avoid net inventory gains, while tight markets in the Northeast and Midwest are likely to continue to lead as new supply remains constrained.